DaysofPal- A new peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet Global Health has concluded that the number of people killed violently in Gaza during the first 16 months of the Israeli genocidal war was significantly higher than previously reported, estimating more than 75,000 deaths, roughly one-third above official figures released at the time.
The research, known as the Gaza Mortality Survey, estimates that about 75,200 people were killed by violence between 7 October 2023 and 5 January 2025. By that same date, Gaza’s health ministry had reported 49,090 deaths, suggesting the official toll understated fatalities by approximately 35 percent.
Despite the discrepancy in total numbers, researchers found that the demographic breakdown reported by health authorities was largely accurate. According to the study, women, children, and elderly people accounted for about 42,200 deaths, representing 56 percent of the total.
The authors concluded that by early January 2025, roughly 3.4 percent of Gaza’s population had been killed directly by violence, with additional deaths resulting indirectly from the conflict.
Beyond direct fatalities, the study estimates that at least 8,200 additional deaths were caused by indirect consequences of the genocidal war, including malnutrition and untreated illness.
Researchers noted that these figures do not include later phases of the conflict, particularly renewed Israeli genocide between March and October 2025, when famine conditions were declared amid severe aid restrictions.
The findings are based on interviews with approximately 2,000 households representing nearly 9,700 individuals across Gaza.
Participants were selected to reflect the broader population and were asked to report deaths among family members.
The survey was conducted by experienced Palestinian pollsters under difficult conditions.
Researchers said the project represents the first population-representative household mortality survey carried out during the war itself, demonstrating that reliable data collection is possible even in extreme conflict environments.
While Israeli officials have previously questioned casualty figures issued by Gaza’s health ministry, the study concluded that those numbers should be viewed as conservative estimates rather than exaggerations.
The authors stated that multiple independent methods support the ministry’s reporting system despite the severe constraints under which it operates.
Recent statements from Israeli military officials have also acknowledged a death toll in Gaza of around 70,000 since October 2023, broadly consistent with independent estimates.
The new findings align with earlier studies. In November, the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated that more than 78,000 people were killed in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of 2024.
Another analysis published in The Lancet last year suggested deaths during the first nine months of the war were undercounted by more than 40 percent.
That earlier research used statistical capture-recapture modelling, while the new study relied on direct survey data combined with mathematical analysis.
Researchers said the close agreement between the two approaches strengthens confidence in both methods.
As of this week, Gaza health authorities report at least 72,063 people killed since October 2023. However, experts caution that the true toll, including indirect deaths from starvation, disease, and the collapse of medical services, may be considerably higher.
The study’s authors emphasized that accurately measuring mortality is essential for understanding the full humanitarian impact of the conflict and for informing future accountability and reconstruction efforts.
Shortlink for this post: https://daysofpalestine.ps/?p=72352
