DayofPal– A new report published in the Harvard Dataverse has revealed that approximately 377,000 people are missing in Gaza since October 2023, with nearly half of them believed to be children.
The findings suggest that the real death toll in the enclave may be significantly higher than the current official estimate of 56,000.
The report, authored by Israeli environmental and policy researcher Professor Yaakov Garb, uses spatial mapping and data-driven analysis to examine the human impact of Israeli military operations and an ongoing blockade on aid.
Garb argues that the population loss in Gaza points to a humanitarian catastrophe of far greater scale than publicly acknowledged.
According to Garb’s research, Gaza’s pre-war population was estimated at 2.227 million.
Today, however, only about 1.85 million people remain: roughly one million in Gaza City, 500,000 in the southern al-Mawasi “safe zone”, and 350,000 in central Gaza.
The 377,000-person discrepancy remains unaccounted for, raising grave questions about the true number of fatalities and the fate of many displaced individuals.
“While some may be displaced or missing,” the report notes, “the scale of the gap has led analysts to conclude that a significant number are likely dead,” indicating that the real number of casualties may be “many times higher” than officially reported.
The report also delivers a scathing assessment of the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), whose aid distribution model is portrayed as dangerously inadequate and strategically problematic.
Garb contends that the GHF’s structure and operations have been shaped more by Israeli military objectives than by humanitarian imperatives.
Using location data and spatial analysis, the report demonstrates that most of Gaza’s population could not reach GHF aid compounds due to severe infrastructure damage, limited transport, and the absence of secure access routes.
Garb writes that the design of these compounds “seems likely to be an engine for continuous friction and mishap,” emphasizing that the logistics of aid distribution forced civilians to make “repeated, dangerous crossings into militarized zones.”
In a particularly concerning detail, the report points out that four of the five GHF aid compounds lie south of the Morag corridor, a location Israeli officials have previously identified as the intended destination for Palestinian displacement ahead of intensified military action.
“The fact that four of the five compounds lie south of the Morag corridor, repeatedly indicated by Israeli officials as the intended destination for concentration of Palestinians to be displaced from the remainder of Gaza in an impending intensification of the military attacks, is not reassuring,” the report warns.
Furthermore, the report describes scenes of chaos and disorder at aid sites, noting the lack of basic humanitarian infrastructure, including shade, water, sanitation facilities, first aid, and accommodations for the elderly or disabled.
With only a single point of entry and exit, no crowd management, and minimal safety protocols, the compounds were prone to unrest, which, Garb argues, was then used to justify military violence.
“Overall, these aid compounds seem to reflect a logic of control, not assistance,” the report concludes. “It would be a misnomer to call them ‘humanitarian aid distribution hubs’. They do not adhere to humanitarian principles, and much of their design and operation is guided by other objectives, which undermine their declared purpose.”
Since GHF operations began on May 17, the Palestinian Health Ministry reports at least 450 deaths and 3,500 injuries resulting from Israeli attacks near or on the way to aid distribution sites.
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