DaysofPal- The Gaza Strip remains in a precarious state described by observers as neither war nor peace, as a ceasefire agreement announced nearly three months ago has yet to advance beyond its initial stage.
Key elements of the second phase of the deal, including an Israeli military withdrawal, the reopening of the Rafah crossing, and the steady entry of humanitarian aid, have not been implemented.
Political analysts say the delay reflects a deliberate strategy rather than logistical or technical difficulties.
Israeli officials have repeatedly argued that the “security file” remains unresolved, maintaining that progress to the next phase depends on the full security guarantees, including the disarmament of Palestinian resistance factions.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior defense officials have said on several occasions that the Israeli occupation forces will not withdraw from Gaza or reopen border crossings without assurances that security threats will not re-emerge.
The Israeli public broadcaster has also reported that Netanyahu told officials an understanding had been reached with the United States to keep the Rafah crossing closed until the body of the last Israeli captive held in Gaza is recovered.
Mohammed Hellesa, an analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, said the situation points to the undeclared Israeli-American understanding aimed at enforcing a temporary, security-focused truce without offering a clear political pathway forward.
Hellesa said maintaining Gaza under strict security control while postponing core political issues serves both Israeli and U.S. interests.
He argued that this approach allows pressure to be maintained without a return to full-scale war, which he said has become politically costly for the Israeli occupation and increasingly controversial for Washington internationally.
Hellesa said the Israeli occupation has effectively shifted obligations originally assigned to the first phase of the agreement, such as withdrawal and reopening crossings, into later stages, conditioning them on additional security demands.
He described calls for disarmament as a strategic tool used to keep the conflict at a low level of intensity, enabling continued military operations, expansion of buffer zones, and control over Gaza’s crossings and aid flows.
According to Hellesa, the continued closure of Rafah and the irregular delivery of humanitarian assistance are part of a broader policy of leverage, with security-related justifications used to delay implementation of the agreement.
He said the Israeli military appears to be seeking more time, with U.S. backing, to consolidate its objectives before any comprehensive political arrangements are addressed.
Omani political analyst Khamis Qutaiti described the Israeli violation as a failure to adhere to the ceasefire’s terms, particularly those concerning withdrawal, the opening of crossings, the facilitation of aid, and limits on Israeli involvement in reconstruction efforts.
Qutaiti said the issue of the captive’s body has been used as a pretext to block progress on the second phase, arguing that the matter could have been resolved quickly if there were sufficient political will and pressure from Washington.
He said the Israeli approach risks hollowing out the ceasefire agreement, reducing it to a tool for managing the crisis rather than advancing toward a lasting resolution.
Analysts say the ongoing stalemate is also shaping regional dynamics, where Hellesa noted that the Israeli occupation appears to face limited diplomatic consequences from Arab, regional, or European actors, a factor he said has encouraged continued delays and calibrated escalation.
He added that largely symbolic regional pressure has reinforced confidence within Netanyahu’s government and strengthened hardline political forces.
Qutaiti, however, said responsibility for breaking the impasse ultimately lies with the United States and international mediators.
He argued that progress to the second phase of the ceasefire will depend on sustained and effective pressure from Washington, capable of transforming the agreement from a temporary truce into a binding political process.
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