DaysofPal – In the coming days, Hamas is expected to hand over the remains of the final Israeli captive in Gaza, signaling what could be a step toward advancing the stalled ceasefire agreement. The group has also indicated a willingness to discuss “freezing” its weapons as part of efforts to move into the second phase of the truce.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, has warned that reaching this next stage will be difficult. Despite claiming phase two could begin before the end of the month, Israeli forces have continued to attack the enclave throughout what was meant to be a cessation of hostilities.
Since the ceasefire came into effect on October 10, at least 360 Palestinians have been killed, and the amount of aid Israel has allowed into Gaza remains far below what was agreed.
This raises urgent questions about whether phase one was ever truly observed and whether there is any realistic pathway to phase two.
Troop Movements and a Shifting Boundary
Israel has not abided by the terms of the truce. Since October 10, Israeli forces have violated the ceasefire more than 590 times, according to local authorities, pushing the overall death toll in Gaza, after two years of bombardment, past 70,000.
Under the first phase of the US President Donald Trump–backed plan, Israel was obligated to halt its campaign, withdraw its troops, open humanitarian corridors, and take part in a large-scale exchange of Palestinian detainees for the remaining captives held in Gaza.
Yet a month after agreeing to these terms, Netanyahu publicly declared that Israel’s war “has not ended” and reiterated vows to disarm Hamas. Throughout the conflict, Israeli officials have repeatedly pledged to “destroy” the group, even as their attacks have overwhelmingly killed civilians by Israel’s own counts. For Palestinians in Gaza, daily life remains marked by uncertainty, displacement, and continued violence.
Israel did announce an initial pullback of forces to an area known as the “yellow line,” a loosely defined boundary separating Israeli-controlled zones from those governed by Hamas. But officials in Gaza accuse the Israeli military of slowly pushing this line further inward, uprooting residents who suddenly find themselves in restricted zones and killing civilians, including children, who mistakenly approach the unclear boundary.
Aid Restrictions and an Engineered Humanitarian Crisis
Even after the ceasefire began, only a fraction of the promised aid has reached Gaza. Earlier this year, a total blockade created conditions that the UN-recognized IPC classified as famine in Gaza City. Although slightly more aid trucks have been allowed through since the ceasefire, the level is still far below what Gaza requires.
Humanitarian agencies warn that the situation remains catastrophic. UNICEF identified nearly 9,300 cases of acute malnutrition among children under five in October, five times the number recorded during a previous pause in hostilities.
UNRWA officials say that much of the incoming cargo is commercial rather than humanitarian, leaving major aid organizations unable to reach the population effectively.
Is Israel Committed to the Truce?
Given Israel’s actions since October and its decision to unilaterally abandon another ceasefire earlier this year, many analysts are skeptical. Netanyahu’s political challenges, combined with his corruption trial, have raised questions about how his personal circumstances may shape war policy.
The prime minister’s political survival increasingly depends on support from the Trump administration, which has positioned itself as the architect and guarantor of the current ceasefire framework.
Trump has openly backed Netanyahu and even urged Israel’s president to pardon him, a move Netanyahu has also requested.
This dynamic allows Netanyahu to deflect domestic criticism by framing concessions as US-imposed. As analyst Yossi Mekelberg notes, “Netanyahu can always shrug and say, ‘It’s not me, it’s Trump.’”
The second phase focuses on Gaza’s post-war governance. The most detailed proposal so far, supported by the US and partially endorsed by the UN Security Council, calls for Gaza to be governed temporarily by Palestinian technocrats, not political parties.
Their administration would be supervised by a multinational “Board of Peace,” while an International Stabilization Force would oversee security and disarmament.
The aim is to allow reconstruction to begin while preventing renewed conflict. But Hamas and other Palestinian factions reject any form of foreign guardianship, arguing that the UN-backed plan imposes political arrangements that bypass Palestinian national decision-making.
A Final Agreement Remains Elusive
Nothing about the future is certain, except the continued suffering in Gaza. Critics argue that Netanyahu’s political maneuvering, combined with the unpredictability of Trump’s negotiating team, makes the road to a lasting accord extremely unstable.
Any deal may also be undermined by Israel’s long-standing pattern of launching military operations whenever it chooses, as seen in the occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere.
Prospects for a Palestinian state appear no closer. With Israeli domestic politics in flux and international diplomacy driven by competing agendas, analysts warn that predicting an outcome is nearly impossible.
“It’s Netanyahu,” Mekelberg said. “His corruption cuts through everything… It’s too messy. There are no clear lines. And when you add a US president who is equally unpredictable, there is no way to know how this ends.”
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