After 15 months of relentless bombardment that have brought unparalleled death and destruction to Gaza, analysts believe that Israel is far from victorious.
Despite its overwhelming firepower and international support, Israel has failed to achieve several key objectives since launching its war on Gaza on October 7, 2023, in response to the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.
This inability, combined with the immense human cost in Gaza, underscores critical flaws in Israel’s military and political strategy, according to analysts Sami Orabi and Ameer Makhoul.
“October 7 marked a strategic, military, and intelligence failure for Israel—one its forces aimed to rectify,” said Orabi, a political analyst based in Ramallah. “However, Israel’s actions have only deepened those vulnerabilities instead of overcoming them.”
Shattered Image
One of the war’s most significant setbacks for Israel is the fractured image of invincibility shattered during the October 7 Hamas assault.
Orabi points to Israel’s eventual agreement with Hamas—an organization it had vowed to destroy—as a glaring indicator of this failure.
“This shows that the image shattered on October 7 has not been restored up until this moment,” he noted.
While Israel’s military campaigns have destroyed much of Gaza’s infrastructure and claimed countless Palestinian lives, these actions have not translated into strategic victories.
High Human Cost
Analysts highlight that any discussion of Israel’s successes and failures must account for the immense human cost of its offensive in Gaza.
“Israel has not achieved several of its goals, but we cannot overlook the massive destruction and severe human toll it inflicted on Palestinians,” Orabi said.
Makhoul, a Haifa-based writer and activist, echoes this sentiment. He stresses that while Palestinians have paid a devastating price, Israel cannot claim true victory either.
“There’s an internal feeling in Israel of defeat,” he told Middle East Eye. “The war has left Israel in a weaker strategic position globally and regionally.”
Unmet Objectives
Israel launched the offensive with the stated aims of destroying Hamas’ military wing, toppling its government, and releasing 240 captives held in Gaza. Yet, these goals remain unfulfilled.
Additionally, unspoken objectives like expelling Palestinians from Gaza, enforcing long-term military occupation, and eliminating Hamas’ influence have also failed, according to Orabi.
“The occupation could not displace Palestinians outside Gaza or find an alternative to Hamas’ rule,” he said.
Global Fallout
Makhoul emphasizes that Israel’s failures extend beyond the battlefield. Its actions have eroded international political alliances, particularly those formed during the Trump administration.
“The strategic weight Israel once had in the Arab world and globally has significantly declined,” he stated.
Furthermore, growing international outrage over Israel’s actions in Gaza has shifted global perceptions. Calls for accountability have intensified, and the Palestinian cause has regained prominence on the international stage.
The International Court of Justice has preliminarily found that Israel’s actions in Gaza could constitute genocide, further amplifying global criticism.
Challenges Ahead
Hamas, despite surviving the offensive, faces daunting challenges in the aftermath of the war. It must address the devastation in Gaza, rebuild its infrastructure, and provide social and economic solutions for a deeply traumatized population.
“The reconstruction process will be one of the most significant challenges,” Orabi noted, highlighting the countless orphans, injured individuals, and widespread social disruption.
Long-Term Implications
As analysts assess the war’s fallout, one key question remains: Has Israel’s campaign deterred resistance, or has it only emboldened defiance?
“Did the destruction of Gaza change the Palestinians’ belief in resistance?” Orabi asked.
While Gaza has suffered catastrophic losses, the resilience and refusal to capitulate have cemented Hamas’ role as a symbol of Palestinian defiance, he argues.
“For the first time, Israel has been targeted, deceived, and defeated,” Orabi said, emphasizing the long-lasting implications of these developments on the future of the conflict and Israel’s security.
In the broader context, the war has only deepened the struggle for both Palestinians and Israelis, setting the stage for more profound and enduring challenges ahead.
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